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Warm Pacific waters bring heavy rain

The coast of Peru and Ecuador tends to see torrential rain and floods when the Pacific is warmer than normal, a well-documented effect that historically hits this region the hardest during El Niño years.

Persistent heavy rain for southern Brazil

Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina often experience persistent, extreme rainfall due to a strengthened jet stream during El Niño years, as seen in recent major floods.

Drought and fires likely in Amazon

The Amazon basin and Northeast Brazil tend to suffer severe drought, with record-low rivers, fires, and crop failures, as fewer rain-producing storms occur when the Pacific is warmer than normal.

Less rain for Colombia and Venezuela

Colombia and Venezuela often face below-normal rainfall, stressing hydropower and agriculture, with a higher risk of wildfires in Andean valleys during El Niño years.

Dry Corridor faces crop failures

Central America's Dry Corridor tends to experience failed rains, threatening basic maize and bean harvests and increasing food insecurity when the Pacific is warmer than normal.

Indonesia faces drought and fires

Indonesia and Malaysia often endure severe drought, leading to large forest fires and haze, with reduced rice and palm yields, a well-documented El Niño tendency.

East Australia faces dry heat

Eastern Australia typically experiences reduced rainfall and heatwaves, increasing bushfire danger and straining water supplies along its populated east coast during El Niño years.

Monsoon rains may weaken in India

India and Pakistan's monsoon region often sees weakened southwest monsoon rains, impacting agriculture and stressing water and power supplies when the Pacific is warmer than normal.

Philippines faces delayed rains

The Philippines tends to experience delayed rains and a harsher dry season, affecting rice production and hydropower, with water rationing common during El Niño years.

Wetter winters for Southern US

The southern United States often sees wetter and stormier winters, particularly across California and the Gulf Coast, with increased flood and severe weather risks when the Pacific is warmer than normal.

Flooding likely in Horn of Africa

Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia's lowlands in the Horn of Africa tend to experience heavier October-December rains, causing flooding and displacement, often following drought periods.

Summer rains fail in Southern Africa

Southern Africa, including the maize belt, often faces failing summer rains, leading to crop losses and power supply stress in countries like South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique.

Drought and heat for Northern Mexico

Northern and Central Mexico tend to experience drought and heat during El Niño winters, stressing reservoirs, agriculture, and city water supplies.

Mekong region faces drought impacts

Mainland Southeast Asia, particularly the Mekong basin, often suffers from droughts, leading to low river levels, saltwater intrusion, and pressure on rice crops and water supplies.